Recently, bitcoin has fallen for the ninth time in 12 trading days, which is lower than the relative strength index of 100 day moving average and close to oversold level. The cumulative decline of bitcoin is about 21.38%.

Behind the slump is a wave of anti bitcoin led by some central banks.

On April 16, the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (cbrt) said it would ban the use of cryptocurrency and other encrypted assets based on distributed ledger technology as payments, whether directly or indirectly. The ban will take effect on April 30 this year. The price of bitcoin (btc-usd) fell from an all-time high after Turkey's central bank decided to ban cryptocurrency for payments.

Coincidentally, according to Reuters, on the afternoon of April 18, the Indian government will ban cryptocurrency and impose fines on those who trade or even hold such assets in the country. India will define any act of encrypting assets as a criminal act.

After the release of these two news, the digital currency group suffered a round of high decline. Bitcoin once fell below US $52000 per coin, with a decline of more than 15% within the day.

Recently, reports that Biden may raise the capital gains tax for the rich in the United States have exacerbated the volatility of bitcoin. According to the regulations, if the U.S. investors who hold bitcoin choose to sell it after holding it for more than one year, they will have to pay capital gains tax, which directly causes some profitable investors to sell bitcoin.

A new round of selling on Friday pushed bitcoin down as much as 7.9% to $47525, breaking through its 100 day moving average. Wall Street analysts warned bitcoin could fall further. Based on the follow-up market and leverage, bitcoin market trend has certain inertia. Whether bitcoin can rebound in the short term after this sharp rise and high drop still needs further observation.

The struggle between bitcoin and central bank currencies to seize the "minting right" will continue. One of the biggest concerns is the movement of the US central bank and large US companies. The key is who investors believe. For example, we believe that the future will be more and more open, that technology will be more and more powerful, and we will buy and hold bitcoin. If you believe that the counter market forces of central banks will become more and more powerful, just be a spectator

In either case, bitcoin will be very busy in the future.

(2021-4-26)